Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 over 40.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 over 40.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 40.5–42.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 6 → latest five: 6.4 targets/game. Change: +6.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus42.5-137-137
FD ↗42.5-114-114
Novig ↗42.5-111-113
DK42.5-110-115
FAN40.5-125-120
CZR42.5-113-115
B36542.5-116-116
MGM ↗41.5-115-115
PIN42.5-105-126
HRB42.5—-120
PP ↗42.5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗42.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets27
Target share16%
Catch %78%
Yds / rec11.0
Season 2026: 21 rec · 232 yds · red-zone targets 7 (26% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4ATL86590
2026 · W3LV88532
2026 · W2BAL44660
2026 · W1DET73541
2025 · W18ATL53610
2025 · W17TEN44950
2025 · W16NYJ98890
2025 · W15CAR44300
2025 · W14TB44380
2025 · W13MIA95390