Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 4.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 under 4.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 4.5–4.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 7.2 → latest five: 8.4 targets/game. Change: +16.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus4.5+115-145
FD ↗4.5+114-152
Novig ↗4.5+133-141
CZR ↗4.5+111-145
DK4.5+106-135
HRB4.5+115-145
B3654.5+130—
FAN4.5+100-165
MGM ↗4.5+105-140
PIN4.5+114-152
Underdog ↗4.5DFS projection · pick’em
PP ↗4DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game4.0
Targets33
Target share23%
Catch %49%
Season 2026: 16 rec · 213 yds · red-zone targets 1 (6% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4CLE951150
2026 · W3CIN53311
2026 · W2NE94270
2026 · W1ATL104400
2025 · W16DET94420
2025 · W15MIA33551
2025 · W14BAL1271480
2025 · W13BUF53320
2025 · W12CHI85221
2025 · W11CIN85490