No clear lean · Research notes

Over 4.5

3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 4.5

2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.6 → latest five: 7.4 targets/game. Change: +105.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for NYG and BAL; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	4.5	-120	-137
B365	4.5	-111	—
FD ↗	4.5	-108	-122
HRB	4.5	-115	-115
Novig ↗	4.5	-108	+102
CZR ↗	4.5	-114	-115
DK	4.5	-120	-106
PIN	4.5	-115	-115
FAN	4.5	-110	-135
PP ↗	4.5	DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗	4.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Rec / game5.5

Targets35

Target share32%

Catch %63%

Season 2026: 22 rec · 190 yds · red-zone targets 6 (43% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	ARI	12	7	66	0
2026 · W3	TEN	5	2	13	0
2026 · W2	LA	10	5	33	0
2026 · W1	DAL	8	8	78	2
2025 · W18	PIT	2	2	32	0
2025 · W17	GB	3	3	27	0
2025 · W16	NE	0	0	0	0
2025 · W14	PIT	6	4	25	1
2025 · W13	CIN	6	5	95	0
2025 · W12	NYJ	3	1	10	0