No clear lean · Research notes

Over 14.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 15.5

2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.6 → latest five: 3.4 opportunities/game. Change: -39.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

GameOpponentLongestTargetsCatches
2026-10-04CIN1022
2026-09-27NE811
2026-09-20DEN2293
2026-09-13CLE1833
2026-01-11 POBUF1822
2026-01-04TEN2253
2025-12-28IND1774
2025-12-21DEN932
2025-12-14NYJ3974
2025-12-07IND3963

Compare books

hardrockbet · Over 14.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Over 14.5 (-112)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

caesars · Over 14.5 (-112)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

novig · Over 14.5 (-122)Updated Oct 9, 2:23 PM ET

fanduel · Over 15.5 (-108)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

betmgm · Over 15.5 (-111)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

betmgm · Under 15.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 15.5 (-122)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 14.5 (-116)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 14.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Under 14.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET