Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 4.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 under 4.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 4.5–4.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.8 → latest five: 5.4 targets/game. Change: +12.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus4.5-105-125
FD ↗4.5-106-125
FAN4.5-105-140
CZR ↗4.5-106-121
HRB4.5-105-125
DK4.5-109-117
Novig ↗4.5+108-122
PIN4.5-104-127
B3654.5-116—
PP ↗4.5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗4.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game5.5
Targets26
Target share26%
Catch %85%
Season 2026: 22 rec · 195 yds · red-zone targets 5 (42% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4MIA13131190
2026 · W3TB42110
2026 · W2CHI43290
2026 · W1GB54361
2025 · W16NYG1120
2025 · W15DAL54660
2025 · W14WAS32121
2025 · W13SEA66590
2025 · W12GB44190
2025 · W11CHI63390