Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 under 11.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 under 11.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 9.5–11.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 1 → latest five: 2.4 targets/game. Change: +140%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for ARI and ATL; team changes may affect usage.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	9.5	-110	-120
B365	11.5	-116	-116
FD ↗	9.5	-114	-114
HRB	9.5	-110	-120
FAN	10.5	-105	-140
CZR ↗	9.5	-114	-114
PIN	9.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	9.5	-111	-111
PP ↗	9.5	DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗	11.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets10

Target share7%

Catch %100%

Yds / rec3.5

Season 2026: 10 rec · 35 yds · red-zone targets 2 (7% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	NYG	2	2	7	1
2026 · W3	SF	4	4	10	0
2026 · W2	SEA	2	2	9	0
2026 · W1	LAC	2	2	9	0
2025 · W18	NO	2	1	3	0
2025 · W17	LA	0	0	0	0
2025 · W16	ARI	1	1	-6	0
2025 · W15	TB	0	0	0	0
2025 · W14	SEA	2	2	33	0
2025 · W13	NYJ	2	2	35	1