No clear lean · Research notes

Over 50.5

3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 52.5

2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.6 → latest five: 4.6 targets/game. Change: +27.8%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for NE and GB; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	51.5	-137	-137
B365	52.5	-116	-116
FD ↗	51.5	-114	-114
HRB	51.5	-115	-115
Novig ↗	51.5	+100	-111
FAN	50.5	-125	-115
PIN	51.5	-114	-114
PP ↗	51.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets20

Target share17%

Catch %60%

Yds / rec16.9

Season 2026: 12 rec · 203 yds · red-zone targets 4 (27% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	BUF	9	6	58	2
2026 · W3	JAX	4	3	49	0
2026 · W2	PIT	4	3	96	0
2026 · W1	SEA	3	0	0	0
2025 · W17	BAL	3	3	62	0
2025 · W16	CHI	6	5	84	1
2025 · W15	DEN	3	2	36	0
2025 · W14	CHI	2	0	0	0
2025 · W13	DET	4	4	20	1
2025 · W12	MIN	3	2	23	0