Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 10.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 under 10.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

6 quoted books: 7.5–10.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.8 → latest five: 2.4 targets/game. Change: -14.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus7.5-110-120
FD ↗7.5-114-114
FAN10.5+125-195
HRB7.5-110-120
Novig ↗7.5-113-113
PIN7.5-114-114
B3658.5-116-116
PP ↗7.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets7
Target share8%
Catch %57%
Yds / rec4.3
Season 2026: 4 rec · 17 yds · red-zone targets 1 (17% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4NO1000
2026 · W3GB2290
2026 · W2CAR3130
2026 · W1PIT1150
2025 · W16GB52330
2025 · W15CLE3000
2025 · W14GB3271
2025 · W13PHI32190
2025 · W12PIT1160
2025 · W10NYG4150