Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 8.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

9/10 over 8.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

6 quoted books: 8.5–10.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 6.8 → latest five: 1.4 targets/game. Change: -79.4%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus8.5——
DK10.5-110-114
FAN10.5+100-150
CZR8.5-114-114
Novig ↗8.5-113-106
FD ↗8.5-114-114
PIN8.5-114-114
PP ↗8.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets5
Target share5%
Catch %60%
Yds / rec16.0
Season 2026: 3 rec · 48 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4BAL21130
2026 · W3NYG1000
2026 · W2PHI22350
2025 · W11HOU11130
2025 · W6LV11180
2025 · W5ARI1051310
2025 · W4HOU32300
2025 · W3IND71270
2025 · W2LA63570
2025 · W1DEN84270