Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 over 20.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 over 20.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

1 quoted books: 20.5–20.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.4 → latest five: 5 targets/game. Change: +108.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	20.5	—	—
B365	20.5	-116	-116
PP ↗	20.5	DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗	14.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets20

Target share14%

Catch %65%

Yds / rec11.0

Season 2026: 13 rec · 143 yds · red-zone targets 5 (29% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	CLE	6	3	33	0
2026 · W3	CIN	4	3	49	0
2026 · W2	NE	4	2	34	0
2026 · W1	ATL	6	5	27	0
2025 · W18	BAL	5	5	33	0
2025 · W17	CLE	0	0	0	0
2025 · W16	DET	2	2	8	2
2025 · W15	MIA	3	3	15	0
2025 · W14	BAL	3	3	49	1
2025 · W13	BUF	4	2	9	1