Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 4.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 under 4.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 3.5–4.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.4 → latest five: 4.2 targets/game. Change: +23.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for PHI and GB; team changes may affect usage.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	3.5	-130	+100
FD ↗	3.5	-138	+104
CZR ↗	3.5	-132	+107
DK	3.5	-131	+103
PIN	3.5	-125	-106
B365	3.5	-141	—
Novig ↗	3.5	-117	+100
HRB	3.5	-130	+100
MGM ↗	3.5	-140	+105
FAN	4.5	+155	-255
Underdog ↗	3.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Rec / game3.0

Targets20

Target share19%

Catch %60%

Season 2026: 12 rec · 197 yds · red-zone targets 4 (31% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	LA	5	3	18	0
2026 · W3	CHI	5	2	32	0
2026 · W2	TEN	6	5	74	0
2026 · W1	WAS	4	2	73	1
2025 · W17	BAL	1	1	7	0
2025 · W16	CHI	2	2	12	0
2025 · W15	DEN	2	1	6	0
2025 · W13	DET	7	6	94	2
2025 · W12	MIN	4	2	32	0
2025 · W11	NYG	2	1	9	0