No clear lean · Research notes

Over 9.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 10.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.6 → latest five: 4.8 opportunities/game. Change: +84.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-04	SF	10	3	1
2026-01-25 PO	NE	52	6	4
2026-01-17 PO	BUF	27	8	8
2026-01-04	LAC	7	3	2
2025-12-26	KC	7	4	3
2025-12-21	JAX	26	3	3
2025-12-14	GB	11	6	4
2025-12-07	LV	5	1	1
2025-12-01	WSH	6	2	2
2025-10-26	DAL	0	1	0

Compare books

draftkings · Over 9.5 (-119)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

fanduel · Over 10.5 (-114)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 10.5 (-114)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 9.5 (-109)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET