No clear lean · Research notes

Over 4.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Under 4.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 6 → latest five: 6.4 targets/game. Change: +6.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus4.5+115-150
FD ↗4.5+106-140
DK4.5+118-150
Novig ↗4.5+122-138
CZR ↗4.5+116-160
HRB4.5+115-150
B3654.5+110—
PIN4.5+119-158
FAN4.5+115-170
MGM ↗4.5+100-135
Underdog ↗4.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game5.3
Targets27
Target share16%
Catch %78%
Season 2026: 21 rec · 232 yds · red-zone targets 7 (26% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4ATL86590
2026 · W3LV88532
2026 · W2BAL44660
2026 · W1DET73541
2025 · W18ATL53610
2025 · W17TEN44950
2025 · W16NYJ98890
2025 · W15CAR44300
2025 · W14TB44380
2025 · W13MIA95390