No clear lean · Research notes

Over 10.5

3/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 14.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5 → latest five: 2.2 targets/game. Change: -56%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	12.5	-137	-137
FD ↗	12.5	-114	-114
HRB	12.5	-120	-110
Novig ↗	12.5	-113	-111
FAN	10.5	-150	+100
CZR	12.5	-120	-110
DK	12.5	-118	-106
PIN	12.5	-114	-114
MGM ↗	14.5	-115	-115
PP ↗	12.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets9

Target share8%

Catch %89%

Yds / rec8.4

Season 2026: 8 rec · 67 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	ARI	1	1	8	0
2026 · W3	TEN	4	3	40	0
2026 · W2	LA	4	4	19	0
2026 · W1	DAL	0	0	0	1
2025 · W8	PHI	2	1	18	1
2025 · W7	DEN	6	3	34	1
2025 · W6	PHI	2	2	12	3
2025 · W5	NO	7	6	45	0
2025 · W4	LAC	2	2	11	0
2025 · W3	KC	8	6	61	1