No clear lean · Research notes

Over 3.5

2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 3.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.6 → latest five: 5.8 targets/game. Change: +61.1%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus3.5-137-137
B3653.5-120—
FD ↗3.5-114-114
HRB3.5-115-115
Novig ↗3.5+100-107
CZR ↗3.5-114-114
DK3.5-114-112
FAN3.5-110-125
MGM ↗3.5-135+100
PIN3.5-114-114
PP ↗3.5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗3.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game5.0
Targets24
Target share18%
Catch %83%
Season 2026: 20 rec · 169 yds · red-zone targets 2 (9% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4KC108820
2026 · W3NO33321
2026 · W2LAC43230
2026 · W1MIA76320
2025 · W18KC53470
2025 · W17NYG109890
2025 · W16HOU31100
2025 · W15PHI0000
2025 · W12CLE11140
2025 · W11DAL43130