No clear lean · Research notes

Over 2.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 3.5

3/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.8 → latest five: 4.4 targets/game. Change: +57.1%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus2.5-135+100
FD ↗2.5-136+102
CZR ↗2.5-132+102
DK2.5-136+106
HRB2.5-135+100
FAN3.5+175-280
PIN2.5-142+107
B3652.5-141—
MGM ↗2.5-135+100
Novig ↗2.5-115+113
Rec / game3.0
Targets12
Target share12%
Catch %75%
Season 2026: 9 rec · 90 yds · red-zone targets 2 (40% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W3KC75550
2026 · W2SF32170
2026 · W1LV22180
2025 · W18NE43310
2025 · W17TB65581
2025 · W16CIN33460
2025 · W15PIT22460
2025 · W14NYJ33410
2025 · W13NO22240
2025 · W11WAS42180