Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 over 36.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 over 36.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 36.5–40.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.6 → latest five: 7.4 targets/game. Change: +32.1%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus40.5-115-115
B36538.5-116-116
FD ↗40.5-114-114
HRB40.5-115-115
Novig ↗40.5-113-106
DK40.5-109-115
FAN40.5-110-135
CZR ↗39.5-125-108
MGM ↗36.5-125-105
PIN38.5-116-114
Underdog ↗39.5DFS projection · pick’em
PP ↗39.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets31
Target share18%
Catch %68%
Yds / rec10.8
Season 2026: 21 rec · 226 yds · red-zone targets 6 (22% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4ATL96541
2026 · W3LV63390
2026 · W2BAL75640
2026 · W1DET97691
2025 · W15CAR65690
2025 · W14TB53400
2025 · W13MIA88931
2025 · W12ATL73370
2025 · W10CAR31150
2025 · W8TB51100