Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 15.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

5/10 over 15.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 15.5–19.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 1.4 → latest five: 2.6 targets/game. Change: +85.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	18.5	-110	-120
FD ↗	18.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	18.5	-117	-113
FAN	15.5	-140	-105
CZR	18.5	-118	-112
DK	19.5	-114	-110
MGM ↗	17.5	-115	-115
HRB	19.5	-110	-120
PIN	18.5	-134	+101
PP ↗	18.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets12

Target share9%

Catch %67%

Yds / rec23.3

Season 2026: 8 rec · 186 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	DAL	3	3	85	0
2026 · W3	IND	2	2	17	0
2026 · W2	CIN	5	1	31	0
2026 · W1	BUF	2	2	53	0
2025 · W18	IND	1	1	13	0
2025 · W17	LAC	4	3	54	1
2025 · W16	LV	0	0	0	0
2025 · W15	ARI	0	0	0	0
2025 · W14	KC	2	2	12	0
2025 · W13	IND	1	0	0	0