No clear lean · Research notes

Over 40.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Under 41.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.4 → latest five: 4.6 targets/game. Change: -14.8%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	41.5	-137	-137
FD ↗	41.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	41.5	-113	-108
DK	41.5	-111	-113
CZR	41.5	-112	-117
MGM ↗	40.5	-115	-115
FAN	40.5	-125	-120
PP ↗	41.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets7

Target share7%

Catch %71%

Yds / rec16.2

Season 2026: 5 rec · 81 yds · red-zone targets 2 (15% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W2	TEN	2	1	4	0
2026 · W1	WAS	5	4	77	2
2025 · W17	BUF	6	3	8	1
2025 · W16	WAS	3	3	32	1
2025 · W15	LV	7	6	70	2
2025 · W14	LAC	10	8	78	0
2025 · W13	CHI	4	2	27	0
2025 · W12	DAL	2	2	20	0
2025 · W11	DET	5	2	24	0
2025 · W10	GB	6	4	43	0