No clear lean · Research notes

Over 9.5

3/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 10.5

2/5 recent hits; 2/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.2 → latest five: 2 targets/game. Change: -37.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus9.5-137-137
FAN10.5-105-140
FD ↗9.5-114-114
CZR ↗9.5-109-120
DK9.5-108-116
HRB9.5-110-120
Novig ↗9.5-113-113
PIN9.5-114-114
PP ↗9.5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗9.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets7
Target share6%
Catch %57%
Yds / rec12.0
Season 2026: 4 rec · 48 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4NYJ22130
2026 · W3PHI1000
2026 · W2MIN1000
2026 · W1CAR32351
2025 · W18DET32160
2025 · W17SF32160
2025 · W16GB32140
2025 · W15CLE42280
2025 · W14GB32420
2025 · W13PHI33361