Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 53.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 under 53.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

10 quoted books: 50.5–53.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 7.2 → latest five: 8.4 targets/game. Change: +16.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.
L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	53.5	-115	-115
FD ↗	53.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	53.5	-113	-113
HRB	53.5	-115	-115
CZR	53.5	-115	-114
FAN	50.5	-135	-115
DK	53.5	-110	-114
PIN	53.5	-115	-115
B365	52.5	-116	-116
MGM ↗	52.5	-115	-115
CIR	53.5	-110	-110
PP ↗	53.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets33

Target share23%

Catch %49%

Yds / rec13.3

Season 2026: 16 rec · 213 yds · red-zone targets 1 (6% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	CLE	9	5	115	0
2026 · W3	CIN	5	3	31	1
2026 · W2	NE	9	4	27	0
2026 · W1	ATL	10	4	40	0
2025 · W16	DET	9	4	42	0
2025 · W15	MIA	3	3	55	1
2025 · W14	BAL	12	7	148	0
2025 · W13	BUF	5	3	32	0
2025 · W12	CHI	8	5	22	1
2025 · W11	CIN	8	5	49	0