No clear lean · Research notes

Over 13.5

2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 14.5

3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.2 → latest five: 1.8 opportunities/game. Change: -65.4%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

GameOpponentLongestTargetsCatches
2026-09-28LAR2111
2026-09-20JAX2721
2026-09-15KC010
2026-01-04LAC010
2025-12-26KC644
2025-12-21JAX4854
2025-12-14GB2366
2025-12-07LV643
2025-12-01WSH1732
2025-11-16KC3584

Compare books

hardrockbet · Over 13.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Over 14.5 (-113)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Over 14.5 (-116)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

draftkings · Under 14.5 (-111)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

caesars · Under 14.5 (-118)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 13.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET