No clear lean · Research notes

Over 4.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 4.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 6.6 → latest five: 5.4 targets/game. Change: -18.2%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for DEN and MIA; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	4.5	-143	+112
FD ↗	4.5	-138	+104
CZR ↗	4.5	-134	+111
DK	4.5	-143	+112
HRB	4.5	-135	+100
Novig ↗	4.5	-117	+104
PIN	4.5	-135	+102
B365	4.5	-105	—
FAN	4.5	-140	-110
MGM ↗	4.5	-135	+100

Rec / game4.0

Targets26

Target share21%

Catch %62%

Season 2026: 16 rec · 185 yds · red-zone targets 3 (16% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	SF	6	5	35	1
2026 · W3	LA	7	2	10	0
2026 · W2	JAX	10	8	138	0
2026 · W1	KC	3	1	2	0
2025 · W17	TB	1	0	0	0
2025 · W16	CIN	9	5	72	0
2025 · W15	PIT	4	2	26	0
2025 · W14	NYJ	7	5	50	1
2025 · W13	NO	6	3	40	0
2025 · W11	WAS	7	3	52	0