No clear lean · Research notes

Over 40.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Under 40.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.6 → latest five: 5 targets/game. Change: +8.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	40.5	—	—
FD ↗	40.5	-114	-114

Targets22

Target share22%

Catch %50%

Yds / rec14.8

Season 2026: 11 rec · 163 yds · red-zone targets 1 (8% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	MIA	6	4	52	0
2026 · W3	TB	9	5	90	1
2026 · W2	CHI	5	2	21	0
2026 · W1	GB	2	0	0	0
2025 · W18	GB	3	1	8	0
2025 · W17	DET	1	0	0	1
2025 · W16	NYG	3	2	26	0
2025 · W15	DAL	2	2	66	0
2025 · W14	WAS	7	4	62	0
2025 · W13	SEA	10	5	36	0