No clear lean · Research notes

Over 16.5

3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 17.5

2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.2 → latest five: 7.4 opportunities/game. Change: +76.2%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for NYG and BAL; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-04	ARI	34	12	7
2026-09-27	TEN	10	5	2
2026-09-22	LAR	13	10	5
2026-09-14	DAL	19	8	8
2026-01-05	PIT	26	2	2
2025-12-28	GB	11	3	3
2025-12-07	PIT	8	6	4
2025-11-28	CIN	43	6	5
2025-11-23	NYJ	10	3	1
2025-11-16	CLE	10	3	2

Compare books

fanduel · Over 16.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 17.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Over 17.5 (-121)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

caesars · Over 17.5 (-124)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 17.5 (-107)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

caesars · Under 17.5 (-107)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 17.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 16.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET