Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 over 7.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 over 7.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 7.5–10.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 1.2 → latest five: 1.6 targets/game. Change: +33.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for HOU and DET; team changes may affect usage.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	7.5	-115	-115
FD ↗	7.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	7.5	-111	-108
FAN	10.5	+125	-195
CZR	7.5	-113	-117
DK	7.5	-117	-107
MGM ↗	7.5	-120	-110
PIN	7.5	-114	-114
HRB	7.5	-115	-115
PP ↗	7.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets7

Target share5%

Catch %100%

Yds / rec9.6

Season 2026: 7 rec · 67 yds · red-zone targets 1 (7% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	DAL	0	0	19	0
2026 · W3	IND	2	2	15	0
2026 · W2	CIN	2	2	14	0
2026 · W1	BUF	3	3	19	3
2025 · W18	CHI	1	1	13	0
2025 · W17	MIN	2	2	15	0
2025 · W16	PIT	0	0	0	0
2025 · W15	LA	1	0	0	1
2025 · W14	DAL	1	1	13	1
2025 · W13	GB	2	2	16	1