No clear lean · Research notes

Over 15.5

3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 17.5

2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.4 → latest five: 3.2 targets/game. Change: +33.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	17.5	-128	-115
FD ↗	17.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	17.5	-113	-111
HRB	17.5	-115	-115
CZR	17.5	-113	-115
FAN	15.5	-135	-110
MGM ↗	17.5	-115	-115
PP ↗	17.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets15

Target share15%

Catch %73%

Yds / rec15.5

Season 2026: 11 rec · 171 yds · red-zone targets 2 (14% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	TEN	2	2	46	0
2026 · W3	DAL	3	2	37	0
2026 · W2	NO	9	7	88	1
2026 · W1	IND	1	0	0	0
2025 · W17	GB	1	1	7	0
2025 · W16	NE	2	0	0	0
2025 · W14	PIT	3	2	23	0
2025 · W13	CIN	1	0	0	0
2025 · W10	MIN	2	1	10	0
2025 · W9	MIA	4	2	13	1