No clear lean · Research notes

Over 1.5

4/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 2.5

4/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 1.8 → latest five: 2.6 targets/game. Change: +44.4%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for WAS and TB; team changes may affect usage.
Both sides qualify at different lines.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	1.5	—	—
FD ↗	1.5	-198	+146
Novig ↗	1.5	-160	+133
B365	1.5	-141	—
CZR ↗	2.5	+154	-205
FAN	2.5	+150	-245

Rec / game3.0

Targets9

Target share7%

Catch %100%

Season 2026: 9 rec · 51 yds · red-zone targets 2 (13% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W3	SEA	1	1	6	1
2026 · W2	DAL	6	6	40	0
2026 · W1	PHI	2	2	5	0
2025 · W18	CAR	2	2	18	0
2025 · W17	MIA	2	2	7	0
2025 · W16	CAR	2	2	15	0
2025 · W15	ATL	1	1	6	0
2025 · W14	NO	2	1	2	0
2025 · W13	ARI	3	3	22	0
2025 · W12	LA	1	1	4	0