No clear lean · Research notes

Over 74.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 75.5

2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 9.4 → latest five: 10.4 targets/game. Change: +10.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus74.5-115-115
B36574.5-116-116
FD ↗74.5-114-114
Novig ↗74.5-120+102
FAN75.5-110-135
CZR74.5-128-105
DK75.5-113-111
MGM ↗74.5-125-105
PIN74.5-121-110
CIR74.5-110-110
PP ↗74.5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗79.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets44
Target share30%
Catch %57%
Yds / rec10.3
Season 2026: 25 rec · 258 yds · red-zone targets 9 (32% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4NYG137950
2026 · W3SF1711891
2026 · W2SEA72180
2026 · W1LAC75560
2025 · W18LA85991
2025 · W17CIN105891
2025 · W16ATL32521
2025 · W15HOU115541
2025 · W14LA16111422
2025 · W13TB73360