No clear lean · Research notes

Over 14.5

2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 14.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 9.4 → latest five: 7.4 opportunities/game. Change: -21.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for TEN and NYG; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-04	BAL	12	5	3
2026-09-27	NYG	16	11	7
2026-09-20	PHI	9	1	1
2026-09-13	NYJ	10	6	5
2025-12-28	LV	36	14	11
2025-12-21	MIN	14	6	3
2025-12-14	WSH	17	10	5
2025-12-02	NE	8	8	7
2025-11-23	DET	40	14	9
2025-11-16	GB	20	9	4

Compare books

hardrockbet · Over 14.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Over 14.5 (-117)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

fanduel · Over 14.5 (-130)Updated Oct 9, 2:23 PM ET

draftkings · Under 14.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

fanduel · Under 14.5 (-112)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 14.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET