No clear lean · Research notes

Over 8.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 10.5

2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 0.8 → latest five: 1.4 targets/game. Change: +75%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	8.5	—	—
MGM ↗	24.5	+340	—
FD ↗	8.5	-120	-108
Novig ↗	8.5	-133	-117
CZR	8.5	-113	-115
FAN	10.5	+110	-170
PP ↗	8.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets5

Target share5%

Catch %40%

Yds / rec33.0

Season 2026: 2 rec · 66 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	TEN	2	1	19	0
2026 · W3	DAL	1	0	0	0
2026 · W2	NO	2	1	47	0
2025 · W18	PIT	2	2	46	1
2025 · W16	NE	0	0	0	0
2025 · W13	CIN	2	0	0	0
2025 · W12	NYJ	1	1	30	0
2025 · W5	HOU	0	0	0	0
2025 · W4	KC	0	0	0	0
2025 · W3	DET	1	1	34	0