Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 19.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 under 19.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 15.5–19.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.6 → latest five: 2.8 targets/game. Change: -39.1%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	17.5	-115	-115
FD ↗	17.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	17.5	-102	-113
FAN	15.5	-140	-110
CZR	17.5	-112	-117
HRB	17.5	-115	-115
MGM ↗	19.5	+100	-135
PIN	17.5	-114	-114
PP ↗	18.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets12

Target share11%

Catch %75%

Yds / rec6.7

Season 2026: 9 rec · 60 yds · red-zone targets 4 (29% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	BAL	1	1	5	0
2026 · W3	NYG	4	2	14	0
2026 · W2	PHI	2	2	13	0
2026 · W1	NYJ	5	4	28	0
2025 · W17	NO	2	1	1	0
2025 · W16	KC	3	2	9	0
2025 · W15	SF	4	4	49	1
2025 · W14	CLE	2	1	8	0
2025 · W13	JAX	7	6	23	0
2025 · W12	SEA	7	6	51	0