Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 over 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 over 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.8 → latest five: 7 targets/game. Change: +150%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	1.5	+120	-165
FD ↗	1.5	+116	-154
Novig ↗	1.5	+144	-150
CZR ↗	1.5	+124	-170
DK	1.5	+142	-183
B365	1.5	+122	—
HRB	1.5	+120	-165
FAN	1.5	+125	-185
PIN	1.5	+125	-167

Rec / game3.0

Targets26

Target share19%

Catch %46%

Season 2026: 12 rec · 166 yds · red-zone targets 1 (7% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds
2026 · W4	DAL	5	3	46
2026 · W3	IND	6	3	51
2026 · W2	CIN	9	3	37
2026 · W1	BUF	6	3	32
2025 · W18	IND	9	5	84
2025 · W17	LAC	3	2	21
2025 · W16	LV	2	1	4
2025 · W15	ARI	2	1	16
2025 · W14	KC	2	0	0
2025 · W13	IND	5	2	39