No clear lean · Research notes

Over 4.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Under 5.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies.

Historical workload

Previous five: 6.8 → latest five: 6.6 targets/game. Change: -2.9%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus4.5-123-103
B3654.5-120—
FD ↗4.5-136+102
HRB4.5-130+100
Novig ↗4.5-108+100
CZR ↗4.5-129-102
DK4.5-123-103
MGM ↗4.5-120-110
FAN5.5+155-255
PIN4.5-125-106
PP ↗4.5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗5.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game5.5
Targets28
Target share18%
Catch %79%
Season 2026: 22 rec · 187 yds · red-zone targets 6 (18% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4CAR74311
2026 · W3NYJ87653
2026 · W2BUF86611
2026 · W1NO55302
2025 · W18CHI53331
2025 · W17MIN32230
2025 · W16PIT1310661
2025 · W15LA74200
2025 · W14DAL77773
2025 · W13GB43180