Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 39.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 over 39.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 39.5–42.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 7.6 → latest five: 5.2 targets/game. Change: -31.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	39.5	-115	-115
FD ↗	39.5	-114	-114
FAN	40.5	-110	-135
CZR	40.5	-121	-110
DK	42.5	-109	-115
HRB	40.5	-115	-115
Novig ↗	39.5	-113	+104
PIN	39.5	-119	-111
CIR	39.5	-110	-110

Targets20

Target share17%

Catch %70%

Yds / rec16.6

Season 2026: 14 rec · 233 yds · red-zone targets 2 (9% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	NYJ	7	6	94	0
2026 · W3	PHI	6	3	44	0
2026 · W2	MIN	4	3	43	0
2026 · W1	CAR	3	2	52	0
2025 · W13	PHI	6	2	8	0
2025 · W12	PIT	9	3	53	0
2025 · W11	MIN	6	2	41	0
2025 · W10	NYG	10	6	86	1
2025 · W9	CIN	3	0	0	0
2025 · W8	BAL	10	7	114	0