No clear lean · Research notes

Over 17.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 18.5

2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 8 → latest five: 3.8 opportunities/game. Change: -52.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

GameOpponentLongestTargetsCatches
2026-10-04CIN2243
2026-09-27NE1487
2026-09-20DEN2811
2026-09-13CLE3222
2026-01-11 POBUF1241
2026-01-04TEN1765
2025-12-28IND996
2025-12-21DEN2584
2025-12-14NYJ2175
2025-12-07IND14104

Compare books

betmgm · Over 17.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 18.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Over 18.5 (-117)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

caesars · Over 18.5 (-122)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Over 18.5 (-125)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

novig · Over 18.5 (-127)Updated Oct 9, 2:23 PM ET

fanduel · Under 18.5 (-106)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Under 18.5 (-109)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 18.5 (-111)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 18.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

betmgm · Under 17.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET