No clear lean · Research notes

Over 30.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 34.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 9.4 → latest five: 7.4 targets/game. Change: -21.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for TEN and NYG; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	32.5	-115	-115
DK	34.5	-112	-112
FAN	30.5	-135	-110
HRB	33.5	-115	-115
CZR	33.5	-113	-115
Novig ↗	32.5	-117	-113
FD ↗	32.5	-114	-114
PIN	32.5	-114	-114
CIR	33.5	-110	-110
PP ↗	34.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets23

Target share21%

Catch %70%

Yds / rec7.7

Season 2026: 16 rec · 123 yds · red-zone targets 4 (29% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	BAL	5	3	19	1
2026 · W3	NYG	11	7	57	1
2026 · W2	PHI	1	1	9	0
2026 · W1	NYJ	6	5	38	0
2025 · W17	LV	14	11	113	0
2025 · W16	MIN	6	3	19	0
2025 · W15	WAS	10	5	54	1
2025 · W13	NE	8	7	34	0
2025 · W12	DET	14	9	156	1
2025 · W11	GB	9	4	36	0