No clear lean · Research notes

Over 10.5

2/5 recent hits; 2/8 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Under 12.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/8 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Latest five: 2.4 targets/game. 8/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus12.5-137-137
FD ↗12.5-114-114
CZR12.5-115-114
FAN10.5-140-105
MGM ↗12.5-115-115
DK12.5-111-112
HRB12.5-110-120
Novig ↗12.5-113-113
PIN12.5-114-114
Underdog ↗10.5DFS projection · pick’em
PP ↗11.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets11
Target share10%
Catch %91%
Yds / rec7.3
Season 2026: 10 rec · 73 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)
Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4PIT2270
2026 · W3CAR54340
2026 · W2TB1170
2026 · W1JAX33250
2025 · W18CIN1170
2025 · W17PIT21100
2025 · W16BUF1140
2025 · W1CIN0001