Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 3.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 over 3.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 3.5–4.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.8 → latest five: 6.2 targets/game. Change: +63.2%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus3.5-167+130
FD ↗3.5-174+130
CZR ↗4.5+129-170
DK3.5-166+130
HRB3.5-165+125
Novig ↗3.5-138+135
PIN3.5-169+127
B3653.5-156—
FAN4.5+125-195
MGM ↗3.5-165+125
PP ↗4DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗4.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game6.7
Targets21
Target share17%
Catch %95%
Season 2026: 20 rec · 132 yds · red-zone targets 2 (11% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4SF1010680
2026 · W3LA76410
2026 · W1KC44230
2025 · W18LAC4150
2025 · W17KC65331
2025 · W16JAX54711
2025 · W15GB1001
2025 · W14LV66251
2025 · W13WAS43272
2025 · W11KC33200