Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 25.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 over 25.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 25.5–29.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4 → latest five: 4.8 targets/game. Change: +20%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus27.5-115-115
FD ↗27.5-114-114
Novig ↗27.5-113+100
FAN25.5-135-110
CZR27.5-118-112
DK27.5-114-110
PIN27.5-117-113
HRB27.5-115-115
B36528.5-116-116
MGM ↗29.5-115-115
PP ↗27.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets19
Target share13%
Catch %74%
Yds / rec8.9
Season 2026: 14 rec · 125 yds · red-zone targets 3 (18% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4CLE53171
2026 · W3CIN42300
2026 · W2NE54320
2026 · W1ATL55461
2025 · W18BAL53510
2025 · W17CLE53630
2025 · W16DET44200
2025 · W15MIA53450
2025 · W14BAL3290
2025 · W12CHI33191