No clear lean · Research notes

Over 2.5

2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 2.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.4 → latest five: 3.4 targets/game. Change: +41.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for HOU and NE; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	2.5	+125	-165
FD ↗	2.5	+124	-166
Novig ↗	2.5	+153	-163
CZR ↗	2.5	+122	-159
DK	2.5	+125	-160
B365	2.5	+120	—
PIN	2.5	+124	-165
HRB	2.5	+125	-165
FAN	2.5	+130	-205

Rec / game2.3

Targets13

Target share9%

Catch %69%

Season 2026: 9 rec · 115 yds · red-zone targets 2 (14% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	DAL	4	3	36	0
2026 · W3	IND	2	2	21	0
2026 · W2	CIN	5	3	37	0
2026 · W1	BUF	2	1	21	0
2025 · W18	MIA	4	2	24	0
2025 · W16	BAL	3	1	16	0
2025 · W15	BUF	1	1	30	0
2025 · W13	NYG	5	4	35	1
2025 · W12	CIN	2	2	15	0
2025 · W9	ATL	1	0	0	0