No clear lean · Research notes

Over 2.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 3.5

2/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.4 → latest five: 4.4 targets/game. Change: +83.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus2.5-137-137
B3652.5-116—
FD ↗2.5-144+108
HRB2.5-140+110
CZR ↗2.5-137+105
FAN3.5+170-275
MGM ↗2.5-135+100
DK2.5-139+109
Novig ↗2.5-111+106
PIN2.5-139+105
Rec / game3.8
Targets16
Target share14%
Catch %94%
Season 2026: 15 rec · 96 yds · red-zone targets 3 (21% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4PIT76431
2026 · W3CAR2290
2026 · W2TB55270
2026 · W1JAX22170
2025 · W16BUF65290
2025 · W15CHI43-40
2025 · W14TEN31580
2025 · W13SF33180
2025 · W12LV0002
2025 · W11BAL2000