No clear lean · Research notes

Over 4.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/8 across available history. Line advantage qualifies.

Under 5.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/8 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Latest five: 5.8 targets/game. 8/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus5.5-204+120
B3655.5+120—
FD ↗5.5+120-160
Novig ↗5.5+141-160
HRB4.5-160+120
CZR ↗5.5+126-164
DK5.5+120-153
PIN5.5+134-180
FAN5.5+125-185
PP ↗5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game4.5
Targets26
Target share23%
Catch %69%
Season 2026: 18 rec · 208 yds · red-zone targets 3 (21% of team)
Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4ARI761121
2026 · W3TEN65260
2026 · W2LA4110
2026 · W1DAL96690
2025 · W4LAC32200
2025 · W3KC72130
2025 · W2DAL1391672
2025 · W1WAS125710