Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 28.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

5/10 under 28.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 25.5–28.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 7.8 → latest five: 4.2 targets/game. Change: -46.2%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus26.5-115-115
FD ↗26.5-114-114
Novig ↗26.5-106-111
HRB26.5-125—
CZR26.5-111-121
FAN25.5-135-110
B36526.5-116-116
DK26.5-115-109
PIN26.5-114-116
MGM ↗28.5-111-120
CIR26.5-110-110
PP ↗26.5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗27.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets18
Target share19%
Catch %78%
Yds / rec8.6
Season 2026: 14 rec · 120 yds · red-zone targets 1 (17% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4NO2122
2026 · W3GB22192
2026 · W2CAR4390
2026 · W1PIT108901
2025 · W18NO33100
2025 · W17LA85342
2025 · W16ARI117921
2025 · W15TB118821
2025 · W14SEA2280
2025 · W13NYJ75511