No clear lean · Research notes

Over 14.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 14.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 8.4 → latest five: 3.6 opportunities/game. Change: -57.1%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

GameOpponentLongestTargetsCatches
2026-10-06NO2833
2026-09-25GB521
2026-09-20CAR1531
2026-09-13PIT010
2026-01-04NO1596
2025-12-30LAR1132
2025-12-21ARI1297
2025-12-12TB361211
2025-12-07SEA30106
2025-11-30NYJ2487

Compare books

draftkings · Over 14.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 14.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:25 PM ET

caesars · Over 14.5 (-125)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Under 14.5 (-106)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 14.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:25 PM ET

draftkings · Under 14.5 (-113)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET