Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 38.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

5/10 over 38.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

4 quoted books: 38.5–39.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 29 → latest five: 31.6 opportunities/game. Change: +9%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Attempts	Completions
2026-10-04	NE	51	33	23
2026-09-27	LAC	37	26	16
2026-09-18	DET	43	31	20
2026-09-13	HOU	43	29	20
2026-01-17 PO	DEN	46	39	25
2026-01-11 PO	JAX	36	35	28
2025-12-28	PHI	50	35	23
2025-12-21	CLE	21	19	12
2025-12-14	NE	37	28	19
2025-12-07	CIN	32	28	22

Compare books

hardrockbet · Over 38.5 (-110)Updated Oct 10, 3:17 PM ET

draftkings · Over 39.5 (-109)Updated Oct 10, 3:15 PM ET

caesars · Over 39.5 (-112)Updated Oct 10, 3:17 PM ET

fanatics · Over 39.5 (-115)Updated Oct 10, 3:17 PM ET

caesars · Under 39.5 (-118)Updated Oct 10, 3:17 PM ET

draftkings · Under 39.5 (-119)Updated Oct 10, 3:15 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 38.5 (-120)Updated Oct 10, 3:17 PM ET